Gold
is peaking
*As always it is best to read my work in the browser (many hours after it’s first published - though I forget to add this detail every time I send out til after). I publish raw because otherwise it ends up in the draft section, forever.
I didn’t start this newsletter to talk realty - but it seeps into every part of my world - it has been a hyper fixation, not just a career, for over two decades. I point out houses and architecture and really anything to do with real estate ALL THE TIME. And, I often disagree with the consensus, imagine that. Today a BIG OL RED FLAG popped off in my brain - GOLD is at a historical high.
To most folks this little news headline means nothing - but to me - it reminded me of the correlation always talked about in real estate between the metals market and housing, historically. As someone just back and trying to rebuild my business, this isn’t good news. It is just more direct uncertainty playing out very visibly (to me) as folks transfer their monies to “hedge against inflation and currency devaluation”1. The WORLD just reminded us, with soaring silver and gold prices, that they have ZERO confidence.
I am hearing the ‘suits’ say that it’s time to invest, and I don’t disagree. I just don’t see the rates lowering next Spring, which goes against most current real estate reports. Normally, when gold prices climb, the inverse happens to interest rates. But the part that makes me feel uncomfortable is “the ALL time HIGH”?!
The Feds CUT rates in September and those numbers are supposed to target inflation not the mortgage market, though they are clearly related. Even with that cut, the world market just spoke back and metal markets soared. The average mortgage rate since 1971 is 7.71% - at least a full point above todays rates (with good credit). I remember 8.75% with ease.
Clearly uncertainty has not lessened, every day we open the news and are bombarded with violence and lies. And even when it’s good news, we still have to make sure it’s real. Both myself, and a friend in Chicago, after watching Jane Goodall’s last speech, had to google it to make sure it wasn’t AI. And, if you are using AI often enough, you should be seeing how much inaccurate information it still continues to forward (including bias). For now, these United States, feel fractured and secure doesn’t feel that way, unless you already have an established and inherent stream of wealth.
In good news, Portland makes me proud. We continue to fight back against this ridiculous fool and with such grace and humor. Which is why I continue to fight (often literally with my ex husband) to stay here, my home.
What is nice when kindness exists?
And finally, a short, sweet and old, worry poem - since google is the theme, again.